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Risk Assessment and Statistical Analysis
Risk Assessment and Statistical Analysis to help agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries make decisions.
The risk assessment, statistics and modelling team provides risk assessment, quantitative analysis, statistical modelling expertise and advice to:
- Other Programs within BRS, such as Climate, Fisheries and Marine Sciences and Land Management.
- Divisions and agencies within DAFF, such as Biosecurity Australia and Product Integrity, Animal & Plant Health, Food and Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and Corporate Policy.
- external clients, such as the Australian Fisheries Management Authority, Department of Environment and Heritage, Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority, National Land and Water Resources Audit, and Murray Darling Basin Commission.
Our group has the ability to produce complex scientific software and experience in producing practical data-driven solutions to real-world problems for government.
We provide relevant and focussed advice, as well as the tools to implement it, on difficult scientific and statistical problems.
Some current projects
- Australian expert to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for determining uncertainty estimates for 'Good Practice Guidelines' for International Greenhouse negotiations.
- Developing new options for the AQIS Ballast Water Decision Support System.
- Assessing the risk of exchange of ballast water to assist in the selection of designated ballast water exchange areas to mitigate the risk of marine pest incursions via ships' ballast water into and between Australian ports.
- Developing a protocol for quantifying uncertainty in Export Slaughter Intervals for the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority.
- Providing a tool to rapidly assess the expected cost and likelihood of success of an eradication attempt.
- Assessing the feasibility of eradication of marine pest incursions.
- Developing a tool to rapidly predict the range of introduced marine pests in Australia.
- Assisting in the development of an operational plan for post-border surveillance of plant pests.
- We are participants in the Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis.
Some recently-completed projects
- Modelling the hypothetical risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy spread in Australia.
- Assessment of eradication costs for weeds, with emphasis on identification of "sleeper" weeds, which presently have a small impact, but have the potential for extensive spread. These weeds can be eradicated at comparatively small costs.
- Developed monitoring guidelines for detecting the presence of marine pests at particular densities.
- Contributed to the development of a Decision Support System for ballast water exchange between domestic locations.
- Developed a short- to medium-term climate prediction system to help graziers anywhere in Australia make decisions about pasture growth, based on recent and historical rainfall records, combined with temperature and sunshine measurements.
- Determined the environmental, temporal and fishing gear factors associated with seabird bycatch data using observer data collected for seabird bycatch mitigation trials conducted in the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery.
- Investigated gene probes for marine pest detection in ports and in ballast water sampling, for the Department of Environment and Heritage and National Heritage Trust.
- Developed a sophisticated statistical model for Striped Marlin catch rates, for the Fisheries program of BRS.
- Conducted a marginal cost analysis of removal of marine pests from ballast water during sea voyages between Australian ports, for Department of Environment and Heritage.
- Developed and implemented methodology for, and produced regional-scale land use maps for agricultural and forestry lands.
- Re-developing the climate-matching software CLIMATE for Windows PC, and development of best practices manual on behalf of the Department of Environment and Heritage, using, National Heritage Trust funds.
- Advising Biosecurity Australia on methodologies for importation risk assessments for agricultural commodities.
- Cataloging risk assessments that are being carried out within all areas of DAFF.
Project Leader
Dr Jean Chesson A/g
Email: Risk Assessment
Web: www.brs.gov.au/rural_data
Last reviewed: 18 Dec 2007
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